Water AlliesTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Slimes | 11.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.9% | +3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Water Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Cats | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |